Hi all,

let me chip in following:

To my knowledge this is called "Three-Point-Estimate".
Formula: Most reliable estimation = (best-case estimate + (4*most likely estimate) + worst-case estimate) / 6

Klaus

Hi Evgueni,

I don't catch your point of view.
What would you expect if you get min/max values for duration (expected is the one your enter today in the tool) ?
This could not possibily be used for planning :
- planning fixed duration activities need one only duration
- planning work based activities calculate expected duration (planned) based on left work and resource availability, ther is no min/max available.
- taking into account dependences can only take into axccound one duration for the predecessor, otherwise it's not possible to set the start date of the successor...

"planning fixed duration activities need one only duration" - this is my point:
http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/project-help/use-a-pert-analysis-to-estimate-task-durations-HA010113082.aspx

Regards,
Evgueni

Hi,

You have many ways to gather information to estimate durations. However, most of these methods don't enable you the flexibility of analyzing best-case and worst-case scenarios.

...it's Project'Or RIA's case.

A Program, Evaluation, and Review Technique (PERT) analysis gives you this flexibility.

...and Project'Or RIA does not implement PERT analysis.
Planning in Project'Or RIA is kept as simple as undertandable as possible. No complex algorythm. Only what could be done in an Excel sheet...but automaticated, based on workload (tasks are effort driven).

Duration is only used for fixed duration tasks.
If you want to establish duration calculation from a specific method, then why not calculate it, the way you like, and enter this value in duration field ?

Thanks - very clear

Regards,
Evgueni